Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are battling for control of the first states in the Democratic presidential nominating contest, according to a NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll released Sunday.
Clinton led Sanders by 3 points, 48 to 45 percent, among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa. Seventy-one percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa were “strongly committed” to their choice, according to the poll.
But among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, Sanders led the former secretary of state by 4 points, 50 to 46 percent. Seventy-six percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the Granite State were firm in their decision.
In both states’ contests, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley’s support remained a footnote at 5 percent in Iowa and 1 percent in New Hampshire.
The data included voters who are undecided.
Looking ahead to the general election, Sanders beat or tied with three Republican candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire in head-to-head match-up. He posted a19-point lead over both Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Donald Trump in New Hampshire.
Clinton would not be as competitive in the general election, according to this poll. While she beat Trump in both Iowa and New Hampshire, she trailed Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in both states. Her biggest deficit was 12 points behind Rubio in New Hampshire.
The polls were conducted from Jan. 2-7. In Iowa, the poll was conducted among 977 potential Democratic caucusgoers with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points and 422 likely Democratic caucusgoers with a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points. In New Hampshire, the poll was conducted among 690 potential Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points and 425 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.
This is a fairer headline than the one used on Maggie Haberman’s NYTimes article which portrayed only one side as making a strong showing.
What is happening is that the race is becoming tighter in both states.
In Iowa Hillary remains ahead 48 to 45 with Bernie closing. Given margin of error, dead heat.
But in New Hampshire – while Bernie remains ahead, Hillary may have made really substantial gains.
“Calling Dr. Freud. Dr. Freud. Code Blue! You’re wanted on the Hysteria Ward”
Are you feelin’ the Bern ladies, are you feelin’ the Bern!! LOL!
One poll does not a caucus make.
Hillary is up 10.6 points in the RCP average for Iowa.
I am not so convinced that these polls would bear out nationally. It seems counter-intuitive that Sanders who is polling far behind Clinton nationally, especially with black and latin voters would be polling higher than her against prospective GOP candidates. I’d say a sanders v. Rubio match up is beyond unlikely.
Bernie filed for a conscientious objector exemption during the Vietnam war. Sure, so did Muhammad Ali, but Ali isn’t running for president. I feel in a general election, Bernie will be destroyed on that issue by the Republicans. After having Obama take away the Republican claim Democrats are soft on defense, I’d hate for that to become an issue again. If Bernie is serious about his run for the presidency, he had better get ahead of that issue early and often. Knowing how screwed up Americans are on toughness, I seriously doubt he can really win. The Republican scare ads will be brutal if he is the nominee.