A Monmouth University poll released Thursday shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton narrowly beating Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in Iowa 47 percent to 42 percent.
Clinton’s lead in Iowa has narrowed substantially since the previous Monmouth University poll conducted in December, which showed her beating Sanders 55 percent to 33 percent. This result is consistent with most polling of the Democratic race in Iowa, which has shown a tightening contest between Sanders and Clinton.
The Monmouth poll was carried out by live telephone interviews among 504 likely Democratic caucusgoers from Jan. 23-26. It had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
You know if things keep tightening up like this I wonder what, if any, impact this winter storm they are talking about going through the area either Monday or Tuesday of next week could have on the Iowa Caucuses.
From the polling in general, it looks like Bernie really gained for a few weeks but has leveled out lately (per 538), so the race may more or less have stabilized there. I have wondered whether a storm would stymie older, more rural voters and hurt Hillary, or (less likely, I suspect) keep young first-timers from bothering. Close race; I assume everyone’s motivated to get out…
The other way of looking at this is that the polling has begun to stabilize right ahead of the caucuses, with Clinton settling in slightly ahead of Sanders. His momentum seems to have peaked a week or two ago.
Seems about right. I notice that new registration is sluggish, which is probably not so great for Bernie.
It went up in new 538 projection: