Another probabilistic nugget. As of today, the polls-only version of the 538 Senate forecast has 52 Democratic seats as the most likely outcome of the election. That’s enough to pass a Roe law in January 2023 if Democrats hold the House. The House is almost certainly the bigger challenge at this point. But the two equation is firmly locked together. House candidates need the Senate pledges completely nailed down to run on Roe and Reform in their races, even though the filibuster itself has nothing to do with the House.
Continue reading “Blue Trend #2”GOP Candidates Just Can’t Stop Lying About Elections—Even When They’re Winning
Candidates who’ve pushed lies about the 2020 election, and who’ve campaigned on various schemes to limit or subvert democracy, did quite well in Tuesday’s primary elections in several states around the country.
Continue reading “GOP Candidates Just Can’t Stop Lying About Elections—Even When They’re Winning”Blue Trend
I consider 538 the canonical average for the congressional generic ballot. Just in the last hour it clicked to dead even after a group of new polls came out showing Democrats in the lead. The RCP average, which benefits from some pro-GOP fiddling, moved to a .3 point GOP advantage. Whichever measure you go by this is a move of between two and three points since the leaked version of Dobbs dropped in May. It is always important to remember that tied isn’t tied. Because of embedded geographical and districting advantages Republicans can win the House handily with a tied generic ballot. I would say you would want to see Democrats ahead on this number by 3 points to have some rough confidence they would hold the House. But the movement is all in the right direction. There’s been a shift of a point or so in just the last week.
Continue reading “Blue Trend”Arizona House Speaker Who Testified To Jan. 6 Committee Loses To Trump-Backed Challenger
Arizona House Speaker Rusty Bowers (R) on Wednesday lost his bid in the state Senate GOP primary to former state Sen. David Farnsworth, who gained the endorsement of former President Trump. Bowers’ defeat comes months after he testified publicly before the Jan. 6 Select Committee about Trump’s efforts to pressure him into subverting Arizona’s 2020 presidential election results.
Continue reading “Arizona House Speaker Who Testified To Jan. 6 Committee Loses To Trump-Backed Challenger”Reminder
Just a reminder for podcast listeners: no podcast today. We’ll be back next week, same time, same channel.
Big Liars Dominated Key Republican Primaries Tuesday
In significant state-level Republican primary races across the country Tuesday, candidates who ran on lies about the 2020 election were dominant, joining a growing record of success for politicians who say the would have rejected the will of the people in that election.
Continue reading “Big Liars Dominated Key Republican Primaries Tuesday”Georgia Law Says Parents Can Claim An ‘Unborn Child’ As A Dependent On Tax Returns
The Georgia Department of Revenue released guidance on Monday saying that it will recognize “any unborn child with a detectable human heartbeat” as eligible for the state’s individual income tax dependent exemption.
Continue reading “Georgia Law Says Parents Can Claim An ‘Unborn Child’ As A Dependent On Tax Returns”Cipollone Subpoenaed By Federal Grand Jury In Major Development In DOJ Jan. 6 Probe
A federal grand jury investigating the events surrounding the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection has subpoenaed former White House counsel Pat Cipollone, the New York Times, CNN and ABC News report.
Continue reading “Cipollone Subpoenaed By Federal Grand Jury In Major Development In DOJ Jan. 6 Probe”Kansas Proves the Power of Roe and Reform
While vote counting slowed overnight with about 96% of the Kansas anti-abortion referendum vote counted, “No” (pro-abortion rights) is steady at 59% of the vote. It is unlikely to tick down more than a point or two further, at most. This was considered a too-close-to-call race with the advantage to the “Yes” vote. When a result is this lopsided and this unexpected for most political observers it’s not only a political earthquake but a sign many political professionals have seriously mistaken the political environment. When there is a backlash as strong as the one against Dobbs and one party is as firmly tied to it as Republicans are here, clearly the opposing party needs to grab on to it with both hands. You jump right into the slipstream of that political tide.
Continue reading “Kansas Proves the Power of Roe and Reform”Kris Kobach Wins GOP Nod For Kansas Attorney General
Anti-immigration hardliner, voter fraud alarmist and former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach finally broke his losing streak on Tuesday night, winning the Republican primary for Kansas attorney general.
Continue reading “Kris Kobach Wins GOP Nod For Kansas Attorney General”