As I explained to TPM Reader JG, who wrote the email below, when I’m writing about or describing something where my knowledge is very limited I try to keep it vague and refer people to the source. I’m sharing JG’s follow up on the “rosy scenarios” post because he gets into a, probably the key element about why these models have a major uncertainty contained in them.
A comment on your “Rosy Scenarios” post. I read Carl Berstrom’s Twitter threads about the IHME study and think you’re understating just how rosy the estimates from that study are. Outside of the assumptions on the biological side – that there is “Wuhan-style” social distancing for the duration of the epidemic – the main problem is that the study is an exercise in mathematical curve fitting, not biology.
Continue reading “Another Update on Rosy Scenarios” →