HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — A longtime congressional stronghold for Republicans, Pennsylvania is emerging in dramatic fashion as a source of hope for Democrats in their quest to take control of the U.S. House in November’s mid-term elections.
This week cemented Democratic victories in two key battles: Republicans dropped talk of legal challenges to Democrat Conor Lamb’s improbable victory in a special election in southwestern Pennsylvania and federal courts rejected two GOP lawsuits seeking to block a state court-drawn map of more competitive districts.
For years, Pennsylvania has hosted one of the nation’s biggest Republican congressional delegations. Now, what had been a 13-to-5 Republican advantage in Pennsylvania’s 18-member delegation could get wiped out.
It’s been seven head-spinning months.
First, five Republican congressmen decided not to run again, including one — suburban Pittsburgh’s Tim Murphy — who resigned last October amid a sex scandal. Those openings created opportunities for Democrats.
Then the state Supreme Court, ruling in a gerrymandering lawsuit, junked Pennsylvania’s six-year-old district boundaries that were drawn by Republicans to get Republicans elected. The court’s Democratic majority redrew the boundaries, improving Democrats’ chances in five districts in particular.
Amid all that, Pennsylvania was the nation’s political hot spot for a few weeks while Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone competed to fill the remainder of Murphy’s term. Party strategists viewed the March 13 special election as a test of Republican strength while President Donald Trump is a divisive force.
Lamb’s narrow victory in a district that Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in 2016’s presidential election sent shivers down Republican spines everywhere as the primary season unfolds.
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AVALANCHE OF CANDIDATES
By Tuesday night’s deadline, 94 people filed signatures to get on May 15’s primary election ballot in Pennsylvania’s congressional districts. That’s more than twice the number who appeared on 2016’s primary ballot.
Of those, 59 are Democrats and 35 are Republicans.
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ENDANGERED REPUBLICANS
The redrawn districts overhauled a map in which Trump won 12 of Pennsylvania’s 18 districts — one of them by a fraction of a percentage point — in 2016. Under the new map, Trump would have won 10.
Republican and Democratic strategists agree that three Republican congressmen face serious challenges: second-term Ryan Costello, freshman Brian Fitzpatrick and third-term Keith Rothfus.
Costello, who has privately told party brass that he may not run, is in dire straits.
Under the discarded map, Costello’s suburban Philadelphia district had a Republican majority that nevertheless helped Clinton beat Trump there by 2 percentage points in 2016. The redrawn district has slightly more Democrats and Clinton would have won it by 9 percentage points. Democratic challenger Chrissy Houlahan is considered one of the top 33 challengers nationwide by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Fitzpatrick’s district was already a swing district, and the court’s boundaries made it slightly tougher for a Republican. It now has about 10,000 more Democrats and Clinton would have won it by 2 percentage points. Three Democrats filed petitions to challenge him.
Rothfus’ 100-mile-long district in western Pennsylvania was redrawn into a tight shape in suburban Pittsburgh. A rock-solid conservative district that Trump won by nearly 21 percentage points is now considered a tossup. Compounding the bad news for Rothfus is that Lamb lives in the district and filed to run there, although Lamb still faces a three-way primary race.
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THE TOSSUP DISTRICT
Retiring Republican Rep. Charlie Dent’s 80-mile-long district in eastern Pennsylvania was redrawn back into its longtime Allentown-area territory and is considered a tossup. Six Democrats and two Republicans filed to run there.
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FLIPPING A DISTRICT
Now that he isn’t running again, Republican Rep. Pat Meehan’s seat is expected to fall into Democratic hands. The district — nicknamed “Goofy Kicking Donald Duck” for its contorted boundaries snaking through four counties that Republicans drew to save Meehan from Philadelphia’s increasingly liberal suburbs — was compressed back into its historic Delaware County base. Clinton would have won it by 28 percentage points.
With that in mind, an eye-popping 14 Democrats filed to run there. Delaware County’s Democratic Party chairman David Landau said he couldn’t predict who would win.
For years, the party struggled to find good candidates to challenge Meehan, Landau said.
“Since Donald Trump became president, no more,” Landau said. “Since redistricting, we found even more good candidates.”
Some things become wake up calls. The election of DJT to the WH and the subsequent nonsense with the EC in three states has finally caused the Dems to open their eyes and realize, you fight for what is yours. You also keep fighting to gain advantage.
I’ve long lamented that PA’s Dem party was as lazy as they come, relying on wishes, hopes and prayers. NO, you get up and do the hard work and reap the rewards. The messages will take care of themselves. Don’t try and convert people who have already tasted the Kool-aid. It’s too late. Go after the ones who are going to be affected by the BS Trump and crew are throwing around. Keep it honest, and you’ll have these folks for a generation or two.
I wish the WI Democratic party would have the same kind of wake up call. Instead of being the party of “not that guy”, they should run on progressive PRINCIPLES and for the PEOPLE of the state.
When reading of Dem advantages in this district or that in PA, be aware that there are areas where a lot of the registered Dems have been voting GOP for years. I think the information about how a district actually voted in 2016 is a much more solid indicator of Dem chances there.
And also areas where Republicans have been voting Democratic for a long time.
I have 112 targets for the House of Representatives. If the Dems get the right candidate and funding levels the they can win over 60 of them.
This year is shaping up to be like 1994 but with the Democrats having the advantage. In 1994, there were a lot of conservative and moderate Democrats sitting in districts which had politically and demographically drifted from the party. Our Speaker of the House was in rural East Washington State. So when Bill Clinton came in and did things like raise taxes, push gun control, abortion rights and gay rights (yes…the awkward and clumsy ‘don’t ask don’t tell’ policy started out as an initiative intending to push equality on the basis of sexual orientation), these districts became more vulnerable with demographics that were already tipping in the GOP’s favor. That led to the larger than expected wipe out. I believe we have similar trends this year as there are a lot of Republicans sitting in districts with large suburban sections (e.g., PA-18) and/or areas where the demographics have changed towards more diversity. The unpopularity of Trump agenda across the board + these demographic trends make more Republicans vulnerable than one would ordinarily expect. In addition, I believe gerrymandering has left the GOP exposed because their vote is spread out over too many districts with thinner margins that can be overcome in a wave.