Today’s Must Read

It was supposed to be, as President Bush called it, “a defining moment in the history of Iraq.” And it might just be. But certainly not in the way that Bush meant it. Instead, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s offensive in Basra and Baghdad against Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s forces has confirmed his government’s essential weakness.

Consider: with Maliki’s campaign stalled, a parliamentary delegation from Maliki’s own coalition went off to Iran to broker a deal with Sadr. And the terms of that deal, which involves the release of hundreds of detained Sadr followers and the return of his followers displaced by raids and violence, will surely strengthen Sadr’s political position. That’s assuming, of course, that the deal holds and the fighting actually stops. All of the papers report that fighting has not stopped in Baghdad and Basra. And while it’s unclear whether the deal will actually last, it’s crystal clear what the deal means for Maliki. The New York Times sees no upside:

The negotiations with Mr. Sadr were seen as a serious blow for… Maliki, who had vowed that he would see the Basra campaign through to a military victory and who has been harshly criticized even within his own coalition for the stalled assault.

Last week, Iraq’s defense minister, Abdul Kadir al-Obeidi, conceded that the government’s military efforts in Basra have met with far more resistance than was expected. Many Iraqi politicians say that Mr. Maliki’s political capital has been severely depleted by the Basra campaign and that he is in the curious position of having to turn to Mr. Sadr, a longtime rival, for a way out.

And it was a chance for Mr. Sadr to flaunt his power, commanding both armed force and political strength that can forcefully challenge the other dominant Shiite parties, including Mr. Maliki’s Dawa movement and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq….

After [Sadr’s] statement was released Sunday, a spokesman for Mr. Maliki, Ali al-Dabbagh, appearing on the television station Iraqiya, said that the government welcomed the action and that Mr. Sadr’s gesture demonstrated his “concern for Iraq and Iraqis.” And he insisted that the government offensive in Basra was not aimed specifically at Mr. Sadr’s militiamen but rather against rogue Shiite factions there, seemingly trying to leave room to maneuver with Mr. Sadr’s political organization.

A fighter from Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Baghdad, speaking to The Washington Post, sees things similarly: “The fighting has proved they have learned a lesson. The government is dead from our point of view.”