Virginia was a major victory for Democrats in 2008. A state that hadn’t gone Democratic since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, President Obama won Virginia by more than six points, which confirmed what the party had argued about the state for some time: demographic and economic changes in the northern part of the state had started moving the state away from a conservative bedrock in presidential elections to a legitimate swing state. Unfortunately for Democrats, a new poll nows it swinging the other way.
A Roanoke College poll of the state shows former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney beating President Obama 45 – 37, and in a much closer match with Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 42 percent against Obama’s 40. Both trial heats had a sizable amount of undecided voters, between 17 and 18 percent, which is unsurprising so far out from the 2012 election. But the President doesn’t enjoy a high job approval rating in the state, and the results against possible GOP nominees mainly show that the power of his incumbency isn’t spotting him any points in the state at the moment.
Public Policy Polling had shown in July that Obama was still doing relatively well in the state despite sinking approval ratings, showing none of the GOP besting him in a matchup. But the brutal political fight around the debt ceiling has increasing frustration with all elected officials, and continues to effect the numbers nationally and in swing state.
The poll did suggest one opening however, in way that’s been indicative of national results: a majority of VA voters are supportive of a balanced approach to fixing the deficit issue, and majorities are willing to accept both higher taxes on themselves and spending cuts to programs that they utilize if it means getting something done on the issue in Washington. Voters in the state are also willing to accept a less than perfect situation on the debt itself. Only 35 percent of voters said the federal budget must be balanced, whereas 58 percent said that a smaller deficit is ok.
Given those results and the general support the President has seen on his push for a new jobs act, voters are open to many of the individual policies that Obama is proposing. By barnstorming the country and promoting these initiatives, the President seems to be searing his message with more popular solutions as a way to draw distinctions between himself and a highly unpopular and squabbling Congress.
In an analysis of their poll, Dr. Harry Wilson, the director of Roanoke’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research pointed to these results:
“Virginians claim to prefer political compromise over sticking to principle,” Wilson said, “even to the point of voting for a candidate who said they would compromise. Of course, no candidate is likely to test that assertion. Conventional political wisdom holds that opening oneself up to the claim of being wishy-washy is a recipe for defeat.”
“Virginians clearly want more jobs,” Wilson said, “even at the cost of short-term deficit increases. And they think, perhaps incorrectly, that significant deficit reduction can be achieved without broadly shared pain. As in previous polls, residents prefer a combination of budget cuts and tax increases to reduce the deficit.”
The poll also showed a disconnect between the politics of Virginia itself and state residents’ view of national issues. A near majority actually think that the state itself is headed in the right direction, a massive difference from the over 81 percent that think the country is off track. State officials of either party are thought of highly, as Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell and Democratic Senator Mark Warner both have very high approval ratings, and a plurality actually approves of their own congressperson’s job performance versus the 11 percent that approves of Congress itself.
So with two former state officeholders running for the US Senate, things will likely come down to the wire, and the Roanoke poll shows just that. Former Republican Senator George Allen, who lost his seat to Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) in 2006, currently has a slight lead on former Democratic VA Gov. and previous Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine 42 – 39, with over 19 percent undecided.
The Roanoke College poll used 601 live telephone interviews with 601 likely Virginia voters conducted from Sept. 6th to the 17th, and has a sampling error of four percent.
