President Obama has a big lead in Virginia, a once-solid Republican stronghold, according to a new survey. Obama’s performance is powered by near uniform support from his own party and strong numbers among independent voters. The president leads by a single point in North Carolina, a state that leads more strongly Republican.
Obama leads Mitt Romney by 8 points in the new poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP), 50 percent to 42 percent. Ninety-two percent of Democrats support Obama, against only 4 percent who plan to defect to Romney. The former Massachusetts governor’s grip on his own base isn’t as tight — 89 percent of Republicans say they will go for him while 9 percent say they’ll vote to keep the president in office.
Obama’s lead in North Carolina is much slimmer, 47 percent to 46 percent.
“For now Barack Obama’s as strong as he was in the 2008 in the upper South states that he flipped to the Democratic column for the first time in decades in 2008,” Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said in a release. “He’s the favorite in Virginia and he looks to be about even money in North Carolina.”
Independent voters are leaning toward the president in Virginia — 47 percent are prepared to vote for Obama, while 36 percent say they want Romney. That’s built on a divergent perspective of the two candidates: Independents are evenly split on how the president is doing, 46 percent approve, and 46 percent disapprove. Romney is way down with independents — 33 percent view him favorably, and 51 percent have an unfavorable view.
It’s a different story in North Carolina. Obama’s approval rating is underwater there: 47 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove. Romney’s numbers are far better — 44 percent of North Carolina voters view him favorably versus 47 percent who see him in a negative light. Romney might be in even better shape were it not for a major Obama campaign offensive hitting Romney there, PPP noted:
This slight regression in Romney’s fortunes in North Carolina comes as the Obama campaign has hit the Republican candidate repeatedly over his tenure at Bain Capital. 40% of Tar Heel voters say what they know of Romney’s time there makes them feel more negatively about him, with only 29% saying it makes them more positive toward him. 27% say Romney’s Bain record makes no difference to them.
The Obama ads seem to be having the desired effect of cutting down on the number of conservative Democrats who are voting for Romney in North Carolina. The Republican’s support across the aisle is down from 20% to 13% in the span of a month. At the same time, however, his share of the unaffiliated vote is up from 42% to 55%. But because Democrats are more than twice as numerous as unaffiliateds in the state, the dropoff in Democratic support makes more of a difference in his overall standing.
Romney wouldn’t be helped in Virginia by choosing popular Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) as his running-mate, either — Obama’s 8-point lead would shrink only to 7 points within the state should McDonnell get the call.
Obama also maintains the lead despite the fact that Virginians aren’t particularly excited about some of his policies. A bare plurality, 45 percent, approve of the Supreme Court decision upholding his signature health care reform law, while 44 percent say the court did the wrong thing. And voters disapprove of Obama’s new move on immigration allowing some children of legal immigrants to stay in the country — 39 percent approve of the measure, and 43 percent disapprove. Similar numbers showed up in the North Carolina poll.
The current PollTracker Average shows President Obama leading by 4 percent in Virginia, and Romney leading in North Carolina by 2.2 percent.
The PPP poll used 647 automated interviews with registered Virginia voters and 775 registered voters in North Carolina. The Virginia poll has a sampling error of 3.9 percent, the North Carolina poll’s sampling error is 3.5 percent.
