Emboldened by a buildup of encouraging recent developments, opponents to North Carolina’s Amendment One felt confident that the tide was beginning to turn in their favor. They may have just been dealt a reality check, as a new poll released today suggests that the tide isn’t turning quickly enough.
The latest release from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows that public opinion of the amendment has remained static since last week. In PPP’s latest statewide survey of likely North Carolina voters, conducted on April 27-29, 55 percent of respondents said that they will vote for Amendment One while 41 percent said they will vote no. That amounts to virtually no change since last week when 54 percent — the lowest level of support that PPP has found for Amendment One since it began polling last October — said they intended to vote for the measure. With the May 8 vote looming, the anti-amendment campaign must now hope for a scenario that appears unlikely: significant poll movement in the span of a week.
Opponents to Amendment One have waged a two-pronged campaign with a dual emphasis on persuasion and education. Ever since the measure was approved by the Republican-controlled general assembly last fall, PPP has consistently found North Carolina voters to be ill-informed of what the amendment’s passage would ultimately yield. More than simply a ban on same-sex marriage, Amendment One would preclude all civil unions and domestic partnerships from receiving legal recognition. In fact, the anti-amendment contingent has gone to great lengths to shift the debate away from gay rights. The Coalition to Protect NC Families, the organization behind the opposition campaign, released its first two television ads last week, which focused on the amendment’s potential implications on recipients of domestic partnership benefits and domestic violence protections. Jeremy Kennedy, campaign manager for the Coalition to Protect NC Families, told TPM last week that he has emphasized to voters that same-sex marriage — already illegal under North Carolina law — will be unaffected by either outcome.
“What the other side says is that it’s just about marriage and protecting marriage, but what we’ve been saying all along is that it’s about much more than marriage,” Kennedy said. “Why would we be so irresponsible to amend our constitution in a way that would strip families of benefits and domestic violence protections?”
PPP’s latest poll shows that 40 percent of likely voters now understand that the amendment would ban both same-sex marriage and civil unions — a four percent bump since last week. That may be the most discouraging revelation for the opposition, whose campaign has rested on the notion that as people learn more about it the less like they are to support the amendment. All along, Kennedy has remained cautious in his optimism, making it clear that he and his allies are “still the underdogs in this race.” Today’s poll serves as a reminder of that.
