Sometimes you just need to move on. During the silly summer of 2006, one moment of comic relief came when the feds did a major bust of an alleged terror cell, which turned out to be a group of guys camping out in a warehouse wearing ninja gear and gathering around a charismatic or schizophrenic leader who, as Paul Kiel put it at the time, they looked to for “religious leadership, karate instruction and contracting work.” As I put it at the time, the FBI rolled up the group “in such preliminary stages of launching their jihad that they hadn’t yet set aside time to become Muslims.”
Now it seems the DOJ has flubbed their second attempt to convict the guys. A second mistrial.
In general, Sen. Clinton’s claims to be the stronger general election candidate are belied by most available evidence — polling, favorability ratings, quality of the campaign each candidate has run so far, etc. The one exception is Florida. And Florida’s no small exception. You can see a list here of all the polls of Florida. And Sen. Clinton consistently does better than Sen. Obama against Sen. McCain.
Why this should be is an interesting question. Softness of Jewish support for Obama suggests itself as one possibility, though national polls I’ve seen show little difference in Jewish support for both Democratic candidates. If the issue is older Jews and retirees in South Florida, though, it could be a different story. And I believe the whispering and emailing campaign against Obama targeted at the Jewish community is far more significant and pervasive than reporting has let on (a point I’ve been wanting to address and hope to soon.)
Obama supporters would probably also note that Hillary and McCain are known figures and Obama has yet to run a campaign in Florida, something which usually substantially increased his numbers. But I’m skeptical of how much that matters at this point given how nationalized the campaign has become.
Clinton supporters might say that he’s getting hurt by the non-delegate seating issue. But again, I’m skeptical.
One related point is that I believe both Clinton’s and Obama’s number vis a vis McCain are depressed by their bashing each other and McCain’s waltzing around with no one attacking him. A lot of Dems are fretting at the moment. And I’ll admit to a touch of fretting myself. In fact, Florida is a major fret for me. But one also has to keep this point squarely in mind. McCain is now in his ideal environment. He’s getting a bump from securing the nomination. And he has essentially no opponent. No one is attacking and thus there are no attacks for the media to churn through. Meanwhile, both Democrats are getting hit right and left. And attacks on each are the media’s regular diet. And with all this, both Dems appear to be running essentially even with McCain. That’s not a good sign for McCain.
Late Update: TPM Reader ST adds some more thoughts …
Re: your recent post on why Obama is doing worse in Florida relative to Clinton. I’m from CA by way of NJ, so I have no special insight on Florida politics, but I think you’re skipping over the reasons without really addressing them. First, a lot of the Florida population is retirees, which is Clinton’s strongest demographic. And while FL often seems much like a “Northern” state below the South, that’s largely an illusion based on the fact that most Yankees who go to FL spend most of their time in the Northern-retiree and tourist places. Most of the native whites are very deep-south oriented. Plus, the state is on the higher end of the Race Chasm (15% black).
Regarding the fact that Obama hasn’t campaigned in FL as a potential reason why his numbers are weaker, you say “But I’m skeptical of how much that matters at this point given how nationalized the campaign has become.” But that’s totally belied by what’s happened in PA, where (bittergate notwithstanding), he has closed a solid 20-point gap to something between 5 and 12 points, in another state with demographics tailor-made for Hillary.
So ultimately, I don’t think it’s confusing why Hillary is out-performing Obama in Florida, and I don’t think it’s necessarily permanent.
And finally, I will say what I always say about these head-to-head polls: They are just meaningless 7 months out, while one party has a hotly contested nomination going on and the other doesn’t. I don’t know what’s gonna happen in November, and I just don’t believe that there is any information available to make a confident prediction of what will happen.
Just to give you an idea of how much of an opening the Hillary camp sees Obama’s bitter gaffe giving her in Pennsylvania, her “small town” ad is the only spot she has running in most of the TV markets in the state, TPM Election Central reports.
With the new campaign money numbers out we’re awash in stats showing Democratic candidates with lots more money raised and money on hand. That’s why this stands out a little. In the rematch between Jeanne Shaheen and Sen. John Sununu, he actually has more than twice the money on hand that she does, $4.3 to $ 2 million.
An insightful analysis on what the polls show and the “bitter” controversy from one of our reader-bloggers at TPMCafe.
As I mentioned last week, we’re refocusing our attention on the congressional races. And for the kind of coverage we’re trying to provide we really want and need your tips — the kind of leads and insights that only you can have because you’re watching the media in your area. For more on the kind of tips we’re looking for, please see this earlier post. And accept our thanks in advance.
In case you hadn’t heard there’s a Democratic debate tonight, starting at 8 PM on ABC. And we’ll be blogging it live here at TPM. This could be the final debate, though of course, that’s been the case with the last three or four. So no promises.
John Judis, on the historical currents Obama is swimming against.