This gets a little into what-if territory, but it’s such a fascinating scenario that it’s worth at least a quick review:
If Democrats were to lose the special election next week to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts, it would set up an excruciating predicament for House Democrats. The loss would deprive Senate Democrats of the 60th vote they need to get a compromise health care reform bill through that chamber. But it wouldn’t necessarily spell the death of health care reform. Remember: the Senate already passed its version of the bill so there’s no technical impediment to the House simply passing the existing Senate version and Obama signing it into law. Voila! We have health care reform.
But would the House be able to hold its nose and pass the Senate bill as it stands presently? It’s a much less reform-minded bill than what originally passed the House and members are currently furiously negotiating to make the Senate version more to their liking. But politics can change on a dime, and if Martha Coakley loses in Massachusetts, House Democrats may very well have to chose between the distasteful Senate bill or no health care reform at all.
