We have a complicated picture so far but one that seems more favorable to Doug Jones than to Roy Moore. There is some evidence that traditionally blue parts of the state are over-performing in turnout terms while red areas are underperforming. Just how much that’s the case and whether more returns will muddy that apparent pattern we don’t yet know.
If that continues to be the case, it’s good news for Jones. It would also be broadly similar to the nuts and bolts details of the election results in Virginia, where Republican Ed Gillespie got the numbers he needed in red parts of the state but was swamped by much higher turnout than usual in the big blue urban and suburban areas. (There are more details than that, but differential turnout was a big part of the story.) If that holds up, it is not only good news for Jones tonight it also gives us a sense of the contours of the electorate going into next year.
If you’re a Jones supporter, I’d say we’re at cautious optimism.