We’re now 20 minutes out from polls closing in Wisconsin tonight. We’ll have the results live on our TPM Election Scoreboard.
Here are a few things to watch for.
1. There are six races tonight. Each has a Republican incumbent facing a Democratic challenger. Dems need a net pick up of 3 seats to take control of the state Senate. There are also two Dems up in their own recalls next week. Most evidence suggests they should be able to pull through. But it’s possible Dems could win control tonight and lose it again in a week. But again, the big number tonight for Dems is 3.
2. This is a close to unprecedented electoral situation. And because of that pollsters and political operatives don’t have good models to predict or understand what’s going to happen. There also aren’t many polls. And the polls we have are close. So even though we never really know what’s going to happen on an election night, the unknown tonight is much greater than usual. Keep that in mind when I get to #3.
3. That caveat aside, the order of vulnerability for the GOPers who are up tonight seems to go roughly like this: from most to least hosed, Kapanke, Hopper, Olsen, Darling, Harsdorf and Cowles. So if you see Kapanke holding on tonight, you’ll know it’s going to be a really disappointing night for Dems. If Cowles and Harsdorf are losing, it’s going to be much worse for the Republicans than they imagined.
What else should we be looking for? If you’re from Wisconsin, let us know what you think the key tells will be.
