The question hanging over the NJ governor’s campaign is whether we’ll see the supposed pattern in which Democrats out-perform the polls through superior organization on the ground. One close watcher of New Jersey politics makes the following, paradoxical argument:
If Democrats win on the ground because of superior ground organization in the big population centers that’s because of the state’s big urban machines. Now, one of the Christie’s big cudgels in this campaign has been anti-corruption, anti-machine politics — an angle given particular salience by a series of high-profile corruption indictments. Ironically, though, Corzine’s really never been that close or particularly well-liked by a number of the key machine figures in New Jersey. Politically, Corzine’s always been sort of an outsider in New Jersey politics. And some of those machines aren’t as robust as they were a few years ago because of some of those indictments.
So while Corzine’s taken a lot of hits because of New Jersey machine politics it’s not entirely clear they’re going to be willing or able to pull out all the stops for him in the way they did for, say … Menendez in 2006. It’s a speculative point, but one worth considering.
