Very few people went into tonight thinking Bill Halter would win. The big question was whether or not Lincoln could get over 50%.
Well, it looks pretty clear that that’s not going to happen. And this is going to go to a run-off on June 8th. But look at the numbers right now. With a little under half the precincts reporting Lincoln’s only ahead by 2 points. That’s a pretty thin margin, certainly a lot closer than I expected or the polls suggested.
Now the wild card here is the also-ran candidate Morrison. He was running very much on the right. Since Halter’s running to Lincoln’s left, simple math might suggest that Morrison’s votes break to Lincoln. But I don’t think it’s that clear. Morrison is running so strongly against the national Democratic party that I really don’t think you can say with any real confidence which way Morrison’s voters break or frankly if they’ll even show up for a Halter-Lincoln contest at all.
This looks like it’s going to be a real race. And I have to imagine the netroots, the unions and the progressive wing of the Democratic party are going to recommit to this race in a big way.
