TPM Reader EF …
Given the clear and longstanding cleavages in the Obama and Clinton primary coalitions, the fact that polls haven’t moved much in response to the furor over Obama’s “Bitter” comments is perhaps not terribly surprising. Most of the working class whites who might have been offended (that word is overused, perhaps “irritated” is better) by the comments are already Hillary backers. The more interesting/relevant metric for how much damage the flare-up has caused Obama’s candidacy is the percent of Clinton supporters who say they will back McCain in November if Obama is the nominee.
That is the first way this could hurt Obama. The second way is by planting a seed of doubt in some superdelegates’ minds and thus holding them back from coming out for him in June. If the flood of superdelegates fails to materialize, Hillary will have a much easier time taking the campaign all the way to Denver, which has the potential to hurt Obama badly in advance of a dramatically truncated general election campaign (he’ll be fighting one-against-two all summer, won’t have a clear shot to define McCain, will be asked constantly about “party unity”, etc.). This second mechanism is harder to measure but the first will be in the next poll that asks the question about general election support.
I don’t see this denying him the nomination, but it’s making Obama’s path the presidency much more perilous.
Another reader notes that the Clinton camp’s aim in pushing the “bitter” stuff is not so much to stoke resentment which, if it actually exists, shows little sign of moving the numbers but rather to keep ginning it up in the rolling pundit conversation to create a negative drumbeat of news for Obama. That could well show up in the polls by next week or simply hold Obama in place and prevent him for making any more gains.
