One of the recurrent discussions in this, as in other primary cycles, is that this or that candidate may be doing great nationally but they have barely shown their face in Iowa or New Hampshire. Or they’re doing great but they don’t even have an office open in this or that early state. If Mitt Romney wraps this up quickly we’ll probably reason that in-state organization and time on the ground played a key role in his victory, not withstanding inconstant polls.
But as I’ve watched this cycle unfold, I’ve wondered whether changes in the media landscape have finally changed the equation between individual states and the national campaign.
Here’s what I’m talking about.
Thirty years ago, if you lived in Iowa or New Hampshire, your political news came from retail politics and local media — mainly the local print press and local television. There was the national nightly news if you watched it. But that 25 minutes of news just didn’t have much more than a couple minutes available for the primary process.
Fast forward to today. You have a good dozen national political news websites totally focused on the primary process. You have national general news websites like the New York Times or MSNBC. And of course you have cable news — and quite a lot of it.
What all of that adds up to is that voters or caucus-goers in those states aren’t living in insulated and isolated political microcosms that candidates have to hit with a personal presence or paid media to compete in. Playing on Fox News and the interwebs and with a lot of quick hit web-only ‘ads’ may be enough.
If you think about it, this really is a pretty big difference.
Now, what’s the evidence?
What I’ve watched most closely is how the polls in the early states seem to have tracked pretty closely with the national polls. In other words, when Cain hit nationally, he zoomed up in each of the early states too. It’s varied from state to state a bit. But not that much. And that tells me that the national media conversation has permeated these states in a qualitatively new way.
Curious to hear your thoughts?
Are we in a different early state/media landscape world?
