The Big Question & The Big Tell

We’ll have more reporting on this shortly. And we’re hearing more details as I write in the White House press conference with Counterterrorism Advisor John Brennan. But we’re already getting some clear indications about a big question the US government needs to answer.

It’s always been a big question just which parts of the Pakistani state apparatus — the military, the civil government, the intelligence services — are genuine partners in the fight against al Qaeda and which are playing a double game. The Pakistani intelligence service is notoriously shot through with sympathizers with the Taliban and even al Qaeda.

Osama’s safe house was just outside the Pakistani capital of Islamabad and only a very short distance from the main military academy. So what decision does the US government make about whether elements in the Pakistani government and at what levels may have known bin Laden’s whereabouts and been complicit in keeping them secret. And just as important, what does it say publicly about what it thinks. Announcing your suspicions on such a critical matter is almost as important as having them.

So far, as far as I know, the administration, even in background briefings, has not suggested any complicity by the Pakistani state apparatus. But a very different message is coming from members of Congress, including ones close to the White House like Sen. Levin (D), and people who only recently left the administration like James Jones. Levin didn’t make a direct accusation but wasn’t very ambiguous. And Jones said he assumed Pakistani complicity given the details of where he was found and other circumstances of the assault.

Senators say what they want to say. And Jones made clear that he’s not going on any recent intelligence. But I don’t think someone like Levin would get dramatically out in front of the briefings he was getting from the country’s top intelligence officials and diplomats. And it’s what you would expect that the White House would let legislators talk more freely while they remain more circumspect.

But watch this closely. Because at the point where the US government suggests serious suspicions, if it happens, that the Pakistani state at the highest levels was helping shelter bin Laden, I’m not sure there’s much coming back from that.