Here’s my analysis of yesterday’s results. More voters voting Republican was the key reason McDonnell and Christie won.
You might say this is a less than ingenious analysis. But I’m not sure it’s much worse than the constant refrain I keep hearing that independents breaking decisively for the Republicans was the key factor in their victories. I mean, no kidding.
We live in a political world in which the two major parties claim a lower share of the total electorate but maintain a tighter and more intense partisan affiliation for those who consider themselves Republicans or Democrats. After all, if you kept identifying as a “Republican” over the last three years, rather than drift into independent-hood as many others did, you’re really, really Republican. What that means is that except in areas where party registration is overwhelmingly imbalanced, taking the better part of the non-affiliated voters (and what that means can be pretty squishy) is almost always what makes the Republican or Democrat win. Because they’re the people who are up for grabs. By definition.
