I’m just pulling together the different threads here, but it’s really starting to seem like the second choice factor could end up being the big story tonight in the Democratic side of the ledger. It’s starting to seem like almost all the candidates are either choosing to expressly direct their supporters to caucus for Obama as their second choice, are implicitly doing so or are simply expecting that that’s what they’ll do. Probably almost 20% of the caucus electorate remains either undecided or supporting a candidate not likely to reach the viability threshold. So that’s a lot of support that could potentially swing in Obama’s direction.
This morning Eric Kleefeld called up Zogby and asked what his tracking numbers looked like when the second-choices were factored in and reallocated amongst the candidates the numbers went from …
Obama 31%, Edwards 27%, Clinton 24%
to
Obama 37.5%, Edwards 33.7%, Clinton 28.8%
