At the risk of stating the obvious, winning Virginia would be huge for Marco Rubio. That is mainly a commentary on just how incredibly low expectations are for Rubio, and how much establishment Republicans are lowering the bar. But for all that, it’s still a very big deal.
Normally, with the kind of sweeping win Trump seems on the way to tonight, the race would essentially be over. That is because the party establishment will almost always rally around the person who has created a clear and highly likely road to the nomination. The party has an interest in wraping the battle up as soon as possible, regardless of who it is. But that’s the one thing that is the most different about this cycle on the Republican side. Trump is basically locking up the race. But the establishment – elected officials, major donors and other party stakeholders – will not be reconciled. And that makes it plausible to hold on, stay in the race, in a numerical situation where it normally wouldn’t be credible.
I think there would be a lot of GOP elected officials and donors who would want to make Rubio the nominee by acclamation if he wins Virginia. They’re that desperate. But it will give him some sliver to hold onto. One win, one race that seems to show some momentum.
