As you may have seen, since I wrote today’s BackChannel, CNN has reported the first initial U.S. intelligence assessment of the bombardment of the Iranian nuclear facilities. These results seem even more limited than the skeptical take I assumed in that post, putting the program back only months and dealing generally limited damage. I want to stress that these initial assessments are initial for a reason. The Iranians themselves probably haven’t fully assessed the damage yet. But if we assume this assessment is directionally correct, it changes the small picture but not the big one. You shouldn’t do this by tweet storm.
Trump got into this because he was whipped up by Fox News and wanted in on the win. The actual operation was shaped by the fact that he’d gotten far out on a limb, threatening destruction, demanding unconditional surrender and he couldn’t do nothing without looking silly. He wanted the “win” but in a way that was circumscribed and completed on his own terms and by his choice. One and done. If it turns out the whole operation didn’t actually do that much damage, he’s in kind of a bind. Or maybe he can just pretend it accomplished a lot and move on.
All that said, Iran’s strategic position is so damaged — less by recent bombings than the collapse of the “axis of resistance,” which made those attacks possible — that I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that some big agreement is possible. I’m not saying it’s likely. We just shouldn’t assume Trump’s absurdity and fecklessness rule it out. At the end of the day, the U.S. is strong and Iran right now is very weak.
