At a White House press conference this week, NBC’s David Gregory asked the president a highly relevant question: “Can you explain why you believe you’re still a credible messenger on the war?” Bush didn’t hesitate. “I’m credible because I read the intelligence, David,” he said.
It’s one thing to read intelligence reports; it’s another to take the reports’ warnings seriously.
Months before the invasion of Iraq, U.S. intelligence agencies predicted that it would be likely to spark violent sectarian divides and provide al-Qaeda with new opportunities in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to a report released yesterday by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Analysts warned that war in Iraq also could provoke Iran to assert its regional influence and “probably would result in a surge of political Islam and increased funding for terrorist groups” in the Muslim world.
The intelligence assessments, made in January 2003 and widely circulated within the Bush administration before the war, said that establishing democracy in Iraq would be “a long, difficult and probably turbulent challenge.” The assessments noted that Iraqi political culture was “largely bereft of the social underpinnings” to support democratic development.
More than four years after the March 2003 invasion, with Iraq still mired in violence and 150,000 U.S. troops there under continued attack from al-Qaeda and Iraqi insurgents, the intelligence warnings seem prophetic. Other predictions, however, were less than accurate. Intelligence analysts assessed that any postwar increase in terrorism would slowly subside in three to five years, and that Iraq’s vast oil reserves would quickly facilitate economic reconstruction.
In other words, the White House managed to reject what intelligence agencies got right and embrace what the agencies got wrong. How exquisitely true to form.
In a strong dissent, Sen. Christopher Bond (R-Mo.), the committee’s vice chairman, said the inquiry itself was “a bad idea,” and called on the committee to stop asking questions about how badly the administration screwed up before and start focusing on “the myriad of threats we face today.”
Of course. Whatâs done is done; letâs not dwell on who cherry-picked what in order to kill whom. Please. Accountability demands answers. Even more importantly, the same White House that made these tragic mistakes before is still at it. If we don’t take note of how tragically wrong the Bush gang was in 2003, some may forget why they lack credibility in 2007.
