No Rubespocalypse?


We now have a number of polls that give us a some look into the fall-out from Saturday night’s debate. The picture is mixed. We have two tracking polls which show a slight downtick for Rubio (ARG and UMass Lowell) and one (CNN/WBUR) which shows a slight uptick. Notably the last is the only one that includes some interviews from today.

There are also two full polls. One form Emerson College and another from Gravis Marketing. The latter shows a four point drop for Rubio since last week. But I’ve always been skeptical about Gravis’s polls. Emerson shows Bush in second. But they showed Bush in second in late January. So that seems like an outlier poll, right or wrong.

The upshot is that Trump is largely holding his lead. They also suggest no major damage for Rubio, though they may suggest that his momentum was arrested after the debate. Our algorithms shows Rubio, Bush and Kasich all on an upturn, with Cruz flat and Christie dropping. But remember: only a very small amount of this data is post-debate.