With AIPAC staffers grousing that Benjamin Netanyahu ruined their chances of blocking President Obama’s deal with Iran and House conservatives trying to think of other ways to act out now that the battle is lost, advisors to Netanyahu are claiming that, despite appearances, he achieved a fabulous victory. Specifically, they’re pushing back against criticism in the Israeli press by claiming that by opposing the deal they’ve won a big new security package for Israel.
This is really an immense crock. Set aside whatever damage Netanyahu has done to the bilateral relationship between the US and Israel. The White House has had on the table a substantial military aid package as a given for months – in less concrete terms for years. One of the crazy aspects of how this developed was that the White House was offering and wanting to discuss the aid package in order to make the deal more palatable for Israel while Netanyahu’s government was going to war with the White House over the deal. Indeed, in recent weeks, Secretary of State Kerry was trying to meet with Netanyahu in Jerusalem to discuss the aid package. But Netanyahu refused to meet with him.
Now, from a certain hardball perspective, now that Netanyahu has suffered a crushing defeat, you might think the deal would be in doubt. But it’s not. The White House has made that crystal clear. They’ll get all of it anyway. But this is in spite of Netanyahu’s antics not because of it. All the politics and geopolitics militate that the deal goes through. But it goes without saying that Netanyahu had more leverage to sweeten the deal a month ago than he does now. This is so obvious as to require no explanation.
In the short term, Netanyahu is likely to pay little additional price for these antics and this defeat. He may even gain some short term political advantage by cynically whipping up fear within the country – even as his top intelligence and military brass disagrees with his dire warnings. But a defeat it is. No question about it. And it’s a big one.
