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The final results of the fourth successive Israeli election are now in and the verdict is clear: Netanyahu lost. Or to put the matter more precisely, the results make it almost impossible for him to form a government. His bloc, which includes his Likud party and a group of far-right and religious parties, gained 52 seats. You need a minimum of 61 to form a government. Another natural ideological ally, the Yamina party led by an erstwhile Netanyahu lieutenant named Naftali Bennett, has resisted sitting in yet another Netanyahu government. But at the end of the day they probably would. But even that’s only 59 seats, two short of the bare minimum to form a government.
The other batch of seats up for grabs is the right-wing Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas. At least two of the parties who could make up a Netanyahu government have categorically ruled out joining a government with Abbas’s party. Given the record of the last twenty years it’s hard to ever count Netanyahu out. But he seems to be out.
Not that there’s any logical opposition government. The remaining 61 or 68 seats that Netanyahu can’t get are entirely ideologically incoherent. They range from centrist to leftist Zionist parties which could more or less easily put something together but also include hard right Zionist parties, a left-wing Arab party, right wing Islamist party and that’s before you get to the various parties which are basically just dissident factions of Likud which formed new parties because they hate Netanyahu.
It’s all such a mess there’s a serious discussion of forming a short term government which would simply pass a law barring anyone currently under indictment, as Netanyahu is, from serving as Prime Minister. In other words, a government whose sole act would be to remove Netanyahu from the political scene before yet another election.
This all brings the matter into some focus. Netanyahu has gone from being Israel’s indispensable man (in the eyes of his supporters, who are legion) to the man whose presence makes it impossible for the state to govern itself. You can’t simply take Netanyahu out of the picture and assume that most or perhaps any of the parties would remain in their current configuration or levels of support. But if you could, it would be fairly simple to put together a robust and stable government of right wing parties. You just take the right wing parties in the Netanyahu camp and add the right wing parties in the opposition camp and they make up at least 70 seats.
Like I said, it wouldn’t actually work that way. Removing Netanyahu from the scene is like pulling the string out of the necklace. Everything falls apart. And the new far-right nationalist party, which Netanyahu lured into existence to sustain his rule, is probably one that at least some of the center right parties wouldn’t join. But it’s Netanyahu himself that currently makes Israel ungovernable. We hear again and again that Israel is bitterly divided down the middle and can’t be governed. That’s certainly the verdict of the last four elections. But the constellation of different parties at the moment are all basically situated around him. It seems highly unlikely that a post-Netanyahu Israel would elect a government of the left. But there are various right wing or centrist governments one can imagine, with fairly broad coalitions, as long as Netanyahu isn’t in the picture. He’s like the stuck cargo ship which has to be removed before functioning politics in the country can resume.
