There are some more details out this morning on that poll from last night showing Newt Gingrich moving into a solid lead in Iowa. The poll is the Des Moines Register poll, conducted by J. Ann Selzer, which is considered the gold standard for Iowa polls. (Another poll out this morning from NBC-Marist shows broadly comparable results.)
The good news for Gingrich is that he’s not only in first place; he’s also the candidate respondents chose most as their second choice. In other words, he’s got room to grow as other candidates fade.
The silver lining for Romney is that respondents see him as most electable (38%), most likable and most presidential. And Mitt is the second choice of most Newt supporters.
Stepping back, what’s most clear about this poll is that we are clearly at the Mitt vs. not-Mitt stage of the primary battle. (See poll internals here) Newt’s support continues to grow and looks to have more upside, while Romney remains a widely acceptable second choice with perceived electability on his side. It seems like a fool’s errand to count anyone out of this race given all we’ve seen in the last three months. But given the time remaining before caucusing and voting and the data from this poll it’s hard to see another candidate getting a foothold.
Looking at the internal data in the poll, a couple more points stick out to me. Iowans don’t really like Newt (only 8% call him most likable) but by massive proportions consider him the experienced (58%) and knowledgable (58%) candidate in the race. He also wins handily as “best able to bring about real change” (27%). Romney doesn’t come close to Newt on any of those measures. Newt’s margins on those measures are much stronger than the Mitt’s margins on the ones he wins.
In the DMR poll Newt wins the who’s most like Reagan question hands down (25%). But, while it may not be an analogy many think of these days, these numbers make Newt look a lot like another Republican president: Richard Nixon, particularly Nixon era 1968. Nixon was never particularly well liked as a politician, no less when he finally won the presidency in 1968. (Too awkward and insecure to have that sort of political magic.) But he was seen as someone who was knowledgable and experienced and able to get things done. That’s what this poll says about Newt Gingrich. And it’s what’s not only shot him to the head of the pack but seems — at least for the moment — to be keeping him there.
