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You’ve probably seen the news that Kyrsten Sinema has signed on to the Schumer/Manchin climate and inflation deal. She did so in exchange for nixing the carried interest loophole fix, an almost comically mercenary demand — a payoff to working families in the venture capital and private equity businesses. She also ramped back the corporate minimum tax with some depreciation tweaks. On the plus side, they seem to have made up the revenue and added a bit more with a small surtax on stock buybacks. A modest additional amount of spending goes to drought mitigation, which is of course a big deal for the Southwest.
In other words, the bill emerges from her mercenary and showboating demands more or less unscathed, which is a great thing. I’ve been saying that Sinema’s career is over regardless of what she does. I’m not sure that’s totally true. If she allows this to go through and, perversely, even takes credit for it, I think she’s at least opened a path for herself to run again successfully. But when I say a “path,” I mean it is highly dependent on her future actions in the next two years as well as other eventualities beyond her control.
I figured she was going this direction when we heard her talking about drought mitigation funding. That was the first thing we’ve heard from her in 18 months that showed she was thinking about her need to get not only reelected but even renominated in 2024. She may shift more when she realizes in just how dire a position she’s placed herself.
The big thing Sinema has always had in her favor is that in a close run state like Arizona, a divisive primary usually leads to a weakened nominee, whoever that is. What’s more, the most likely challenger to Sinema, Rep. Ruben Gallego — who I’m a big fan of — is likely too far left to win in what is after all still a more Republican state than not. That doesn’t mean you need an ersatz “moderate” like Sinema. What you want is someone like Mark Kelly, who won in 2020 and is looking surprisingly strong this year too.
If you’re a big Gallego fan, I’m not saying he shouldn’t run or that he can’t win. I’m simply saying that a Democrat running in Arizona still is very much a needle threading exercise. It would be a challenge for a progressive Democrat like Gallego. Critically, a successful primary challenge would require him to focus on his conventionally Democratic or progressive positions which would make the general election needle threading a serious challenge. I’d love to be wrong.
In any case, let’s conclude by simply remembering and taking a few moments to contemplate just how terrible a senator and politician Sinema is. Politicians all have big egos and many are focused mostly on their own personal advancement. All are at some level. But I mean, having their main eye on the next rung on the ladder. But I cannot think of any contemporary politician more openly contemptuous of her own constituents, both on the retail and the wholesale level. Nor can I think of one more openly self-serving and egomaniacal. And truly — My God! — that’s saying a lot!!! The true comedy of her ridiculous Senate career is that she’s so profoundly high on her narcissistic and egomaniacal supply that she managed to torch her own career. She has apparently thought all her antics were cueing her up for a successful presidential run.
People think she’s crazy for her constant attempts to ape John McCain and his supposed maverickism. But the truth is a well-executed version of that strategy could have worked very well for her, even if it would have irritated a lot of Democrats. Always be the last one to get on board with Democratic legislation; don’t be a reliable vote; find a few key initiatives on which to buck her party. Especially given her personal story and political background this likely would have allowed her to carve out a strong base which included most Democrats along with a good chunk of middle of the road libertarian-leaning independents. Arizona Democrats simply can’t afford to be too choosy. But occasionally bucking your party isn’t the same as trying to annihilate your party. At the end of the day she was just too clumsy and gullible to pull it off. It’s great news if she allows this bill to pass. But she’s still terrible, as terrible as they come.
