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RUSSIANS INVADE UKRAINE -- MARCH 18, 2022:  15 Maxar satellite imagery closer view of troops and equipment in Dublin, Belarus.  18march2022_ge1.  Please use: Satellite image (c) 2022 Maxar Technologies.
RUSSIANS INVADE UKRAINE -- MARCH 18, 2022: 15 Maxar satellite imagery closer view of troops and equipment in Dublin, Belarus. 18march2022_ge1. Please use: Satellite image (c) 2022 Maxar Technologies.
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March 23, 2022 12:47 p.m.

I don’t want to get too deep into particular reports. But both Ukrainian government sources in Kyiv as well as reporters on the ground in contested areas are reporting that the Ukrainian Army is having some success reclaiming territory around Kyiv over the last 24 to 48 hours. (Peruse my Ukraine Crisis and Military Analysts lists to get more granular details.) I wouldn’t put too much into these reports as yet since both propaganda and the fog of war make our visibility blurry at best. (I find it impossible to know what to make of claims like this, for instance.) And even the reported gains are fairly small. But this does seem to be happening. And it matches reports of real though not game-changing counteroffensives and reclaiming of territory in other parts of the country. There’s been an assumption that these fronts are basically stalemated or that the Ukrainian Army’s size and armament is really suited only to defensive operations. But it’s not clear that is the case.

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