I’m generally suspicious of these kinds of national polls, particularly at this stage of a presidential race, but the latest results from Mason-Dixon have received quite a bit of attention.
More than half of Americans say they wouldn’t consider voting for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for president if she becomes the Democratic nominee, according to a new national poll made available to McClatchy Newspapers and NBC News.
The poll by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research found that 52 percent of Americans wouldn’t consider voting for Clinton, D-N.Y…. Clinton rang up high negatives across the board, with 60 percent of independents, 56 percent of men, 47 percent of women and 88 percent of Republicans saying they wouldn’t consider voting for her.
The concern among Democrats over a poll like this is perfectly understandable. Obviously, it’s tough for any candidate to win a general election if a majority of the country a) dislikes the candidate; and b) has already decided, more than a year in advance, not to vote for him or her.
But I think this Mason-Dixon data is getting a little too much play. A few days before these results were published, a national Newsweek poll showed Clinton (and other top-tier Dems) with healthy leads over all of the leading Republican presidential hopefuls. In each instance, her support topped 50%. (In a hypothetical match-up against Romney, she’s at 55%.) There are other recent polls showing similar results.
Obviously, something is askew. Either a majority of Americans have ruled out backing Clinton under any circumstances, or a majority of Americans are prepared to support her against a GOP rival. It can’t be both. And given that there are more polls for the latter than the prior, I’m not necessarily prepared to write her off as a viable general-election candidate quite yet.
Are concerns about Clinton’s “electability” legitimate? Of course; it’s probably her most important campaign hurdle to clear, and there are still quite a few Dems who still need convincing. But let’s not take one Mason-Dixon poll too seriously.
