This article notes that Newt Gingrich’s policy menu and his recent resurgence seems disproportionately aimed at and built on seniors. To an extent, ‘old’ tracks with Tea Party (in broad demographic terms). And the fact that Newt is collecting together the anti-Mitt Tea Party is something we already know. But Newt’s seemingly geriatric coalition is another reason he’d be so toxic as a general election candidate. He’s activating the rumpiest part of the rump GOP.
We know that the GOP has its greatest strength in numerically declining (in relative terms) parts of the electorate: seniors, whites, less educated voters, etc. Dems have a strong hold on young voters, ethnic minorities, more educated voters, etc. That was key in 2008. And the 2010 anti-Dem blow out was based on a mix of intense mobilization of key GOP groups, steep Democratic erosion among swing voters and weak turnout among key Democratic constituencies. The underlying demographic pattern remains; but it can be overwhelmed by intensity, mobilization and loss of confidence in Dems.
Given all that, what the GOP needs is a candidate who has some appeal to younger, less ideological voters and can combine those with the hyper-energized diehards. In other words, Mitt Romney. Gingrich, as we might have expected, represents doubling if not tripling down on the brain stem’s of core Republican voters while projecting a fairly toxic face to the loosely affiliated independents who are the key to victory.
