We’re on the eve of what could be the end of the Democratic nominating contest. I don’t think anyone seriously doubts that if Barack Obama wins Texas and Ohio, it’s over. The official recognition may be days or weeks in coming. But that will be it.
But you can see a bit of a pattern shaping up. Compared to where things were after the Potomac primary, things look bleak for Hillary. A loss in Texas seems likely and one in Ohio is at least possible. But the hype and expectations for Obama are so high that I think people expect him to take everything.
There’s some factual basis for that. In the Virginia and Maryland and later in Wisconsin he seriously outperformed the polls. But Hillary’s lead in Ohio, though greatly diminished, seems pretty resilient.
In the final analysis, as we keep coming back to, this whole thing comes down to delegates. So I don’t think a narrow victory in Ohio alone keeps Hillary’s hopes for victory realistic. But Ohio isn’t just a big state. Like Missouri it’s a quintessential swing state. It has all sorts of karma and political mojo surrounding it. And Obama’s thrown tons of resources into it.
If she comes out the winner there, which is the probable outcome if you take most of the polls at face value, I can’t see where she’s getting out of the race any time soon.
