As we wait for tonight’s results, I thought I’d offer some initial impressions of the exit poll data released to date.
First, exits show President Obama with a 6 point margin over Romney among this special election electorate. Big deal? Not necessarily. Most polls which showed Walker with a margin over Barrett also showed Obama with an even bigger margin over Romney. Judged in partisan terms, voters were inconsistent, which they often are. No surprise there. So we shouldn’t be surprised by this finding.
Second and more significant, the percentage of union households in the electorate jumped 6 points since 2010. That’s significant and very welcome news for the Dems and Barrett campaign. Whether it’s enough is a whole different question. But it is significant.
Voters in this electorate also have a very narrowly positive take on public employee unions. Again, encouraging for the Dems. But you need to see big numbers to think there’s a good chance of overcoming the advantage Walker had in the polls.
Next, absentee ballots. Chuck Todd says between 10% and 12% of the electorate voted absentee. What does that tell us? No idea. Only another big unpredictable and wild card.
On balance, what does it all mean? It still makes me think that Walker is the favorite. But there are enough weirdnesses and positive sides for the Dems in the exit numbers to make me wonder. I’m a bit less confident than I was that Walker has this thing.
