There’s a very odd splash headline that Drudge is running claiming that Sen. Clinton’s internals show her with an 11 point lead in the state. Now, Sen. Clinton’s campaign has taken some heat during the campaign for opening lines of communications with Drudge and even giving him some exclusives. And the way Drudge writes the updates suggests he’s gotten the numbers from them, even including some trash-talking quotes from Clinton “insiders”.
But this strikes me as suspicious for two reasons, the first of which isn’t particularly determinative. First, this margin is high for the range of the polls out today. But it’s not that far off. So it’s certainly possible that it’s what the Clinton internals are showing. And it could well be true. The second reason is where the problem is. Even if you assume that the Clinton campaign is getting numbers that are making them confident of a good night tomorrow night, it simply makes no sense for them to broadcast the numbers like this.
Here’s why.
The game is heavily about expectations at this point. And the public polls are showing a fairly close race. Far better for the Clinton camp to keep expectations right there and surprise people with a low double-digit win. Switching expectations to 10 points, only to meet those expectations makes no sense, especially since Clinton started 6 weeks ago with a 15 or 20 point margin.
Given the improbability of the leak and the unreliability of the source, I think we need to consider whether this is a set up rather than a genuine leak.
Late Update: The Clinton campaign is adamantly denying the existence of any such internal poll — and accusing Drudge of trying to inflate expectations for Hillary in Pennsylvania. —gs
