TPM Reader MO shares his thoughts after PT’s …
I want to present a third view on the question of what will determine Trump’s decision on Iran. I suggest that the key factor will be what MbS and the other Middle Eastern leaders tell him they want. Ultimately Trump’s interest is in what will enrich him most and here Saudi Arabia and the others have by far the most to offer. For Trump, there is no money to be made in Israel or in regime change in Iran. Corruption overrides everything for him.
I agree with PT that Trump is concerned to recapture the spotlight. He will draw out his decision in any case. And I agree with you that a fundamental desire on his part is to be perceived as winning in this case. But the key here is “perceived”—he doesn’t care about whether it is an actual long-term victory for him or the US (as you maintain as well). My point is that his aim will be only to *spin* whatever happens here as a win for him. The reality of the situation is irrelevant.
I know that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are wary of Iran and are open to better relations with Israel. But will they be comfortable with a world in which Israel is far and away the dominant player in the Middle East? I doubt it, though I really don’t know enough to make a definitive claim here.
So my firm prediction is that it is the wishes of MbS et al. (whatever those wishes are) that will be the deciding factor here. We can only imagine what bribes they will be willing to offer Trump. My somewhat less firm prediction is based on a belief about what those Arab leaders will want. Since I believe that they they will urge Trump not to join with Israel in the attack, my second prediction is that US military forces will not ultimately be involved.
I guess we will all find out soon enough.
It is worth noting that the response to all of this from the Gulf and other parts of the Middle East remains quite muted. Perhaps even more so now that Trump has shoved his way in.
