TPM Reader Theda Skocpol thinks Dems may be missing the boat on the mandate …
Larry Jacobs and I published an OpEd in the Los Angeles Times this Wednesday arguing (like Pollack) that Affordable Care can flourish with or without the national mandate. Indeed, we think it could be politically better off under some mandate removal scenarios.
The one worry I have about the Democrats and health reformers if SCOTUS nixes the mandate is that they will not see the possible POLITICAL advantage of saying, well that is gone, but most of the law designed to help people get affordable insurance is going forward and we must find other ways to broaden the pool and make sure guaranteed issue — highly popular — happens. Put the onus on the GOP and opponents of reform for persuading the Court to jeopardize that. But tout the Medicaid expansions, subsidies, and exchanges that are the heart of reform.
Democrats often get so into the technical details of legislation that they lose the forest for the trees. And in this case, they may listen too much to insurance companies, who will be in a lather if the mandate goes. Let the companies pressure Republicans to come up with a substitute. Don’t just go into a defensive, defeatist crouch and declare the law dead if only the mandate is invalidated!
Democrats can win this battle going forward — if they stop thinking too much about perfect public policy and think more about setting in motion powerful political dynamics. I fear DC groupthink, though.
