Classic Trump-era chain of events. North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis said he’d vote against the “Big Beautiful Bill.” Trump announced he’d choose one of the Tillis’ primary opponents to support. Only hours later, Tillis announced he’s retiring. This is pretty big news for the midterms. Tillis retiring almost certainly makes a North Carolina Senate pick up more likely for Democrats, especially if former governor Roy Cooper runs, which now seems increasingly likely though still not certain.
To be clear, Dems’ chances of taking control of the Senate are still very challenging, even assuming a very good political environment. Basically, they have to pick up Maine and North Carolina — both doable but by no means gimmes. Then they need to find two more pick ups. And for those you need to starting looking in states like Iowa and Texas and Florida. So it’s a pretty big challenge, to put it mildly. That said, I think the political class is generally underestimating Republican electoral vulnerability. A lot can happen in a wave election. But the challenges for the Senate are no joke.
