Here’s a secondary issue we’re currently seeing in a number of races in Red States. Take the Kansas Senate race. Who knows if this is really in play? But the last two polls of this race actually show Democrat Adam Hamilton with a nominal lead (+1 or +2). But there’s an issue here with Sen. Roger Marshall (R), the incumbent senator. And it goes beyond Marshall. In a lot of solidly Red States you’ve got a generation of politicians who’ve never seen a contested partisan election. If you get the GOP nomination you’re the senator. Period. And in some states getting that nomination can have a significant machine dimensions to it.
That breeds a certain kind of politician, which is to say not very good politicians, or at least ones who aren’t very good at retail politics. Marshall’s the guy known for suing and even jailing (yes, really) a lot of his poor medical patients for very small overdue bills (he’s an OB/GYN). I’m told he doesn’t even really live in Kansas anymore. He lives in a “vacation” home in Florida. This is toxic stuff in a really tough partisan election. But you don’t get many of those in Kansas. A few days ago he went on Twitter complaining about ICE not coordinating with local police in Kansas. He’s desperate. He’ll probably be listing his pronouns on his Twitter bio by November. Trump’s steep unpopularity is bringing at least seemingly contested races to big parts of Red State America. But it’s more than that. Some states have incumbents with deep roots and real political skills. In some races you’ve got a Republican incumbent who’s just not ready for that.
I’ve discussed a version of this in states like North Carolina. There it’s a slightly different issue. In Donald Trump’s personalist regime, he’s gotten used to handing out nominations as gifts. Michael Whatley got this nomination as a reward for babysitting Lara Trump when she was briefly head of the RNC. But North Carolina isn’t a solidly Red State. And this is a bad year. Republicans are reportedly close to abandoning Whatley along with Mike Collins in Georgia. They’re just too far behind. There’s something very similar with Darline Graham, a laughably bad candidate, vying for her late brother’s seat in South Carolina. But South Carolina is just a very, very conservative state. So she’s very likely safe.
It’s only with these additional factors, even with historic presidential unpopularity, that you can have this many of what should be safe seats under pressure.
