As I mentioned just after the first Democratic debate, Hillary Clinton’s support has increased substantially among our readers. But the gender breakdown is striking. Now, needless to say, I’m not surprised that Clinton has stronger support among female voters. But the split between men and women is quite stark.
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The details are still not altogether clear but it seems like John Boehner will do Paul Ryan an immense, immense favor by resolving all the potential budget stand-offs and possible legislative hostage takings through the end of next year. It still seems like there might be some poison pills Republicans are planning to include. But this would basically confirm for the House firebreathers everything they’ve always said about Boehner, take all their bombs and fireworks away for the next 18 months or so and again, do Paul Ryan an immense, immense favor by taking away the grounds for potential confrontations through 2016.
When you hear that Jeb Bush is meeting today with family and top donors in a meeting convened by his 91-year-old ex-President father and attended by his 69-year-old ex-President brother to discuss the future of his campaign … does anyone on this campaign think about optics?
I mean, dad calls a meeting to discuss the future of Jeb’s campaign? It almost has the feel ‘Sorry, but time to end the summer project, son. You gave it a great shot …”
TPM Reader PB makes some good points here.
I took a look at the 2012 race and was somewhat surprised. We are much further ahead than I thought.
Back in 2012, the last week in October was peak Cain. Bachman had already had her surge, so had Perry and there were only the Gingrich and Santorum surges to come.
Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas now has an approval rating of 18%. This comes after basically destroying the state’s fiscal standing with a series of tax cuts that nearly bankrupted the state. In other words, supply-side orthodoxy was tried, failed miserably and comically and now the author of the reforms is amazingly unpopular.
The problem with this picture is that a lot of the disaster happened before he came up for reelection in 2014. And he was really, really unpopular then. But of course, he won.
Yesterday in Ames, Iowa, in the course of suggesting raising the retirement age for Social Security and asking people to voluntarily give up their monthly checks, Ben Carson said …
Ben Carson called for “groupthink” to combat the looming funding crisis in the country’s Social Security program at a campaign rally in Ames on Saturday.
“We have to start thinking, have groupthink in this country,” Carson said in response to a question from the crowd about unfunded entitlement liabilities.
“We need to maximize the potential of all our people if we’re going to be able to compete in the future. So we have to start thinking corporately as an entity.”
I’ll kick this post off by acknowledging that this issue likely has not gotten too much attention because nobody thinks Ben Carson is going to be the Republican nominee. But Republicans seem to have decided in the last two or three weeks that Donald Trump actually could become the Republican nominee. And Ben Carson is the only one running even close to him in the current (yes, yes, yes very early) horse race numbers.
So here’s my question: Establishment Republicans are positively terrified by a Trump nomination for two distinct reasons. First, because they assume he’d eventually go down in flames and take other party standard-bearers down with him. Second, he’s really pretty heterodox from a GOP perspective. In the terrifying hypothetical that Trump were actually elected 45th President they don’t really have any sense of what he’d do in office. (For myself, I could easily imagine a President Trump ending up like second term Arnold Schwarzenegger.) So if Trump’s the worst case scenario, what about Carson? It seems to me that even from a partisan perspective, Carson is at least as catastrophic as Trump.
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