If you missed the entire five-hour slogfest last night, I’m … jealous. But more to the point, Ed Kilgore has the smart version of what you missed, which in truth wasn’t a whole helluva lot. And that’s partly the point.
I try to resist the snap winner/loser debate analysis, but Jeb … man, that was a rough night.
I found this debate a bit hard to get a read on. In large part that’s because it was, at three hours, just ridiculously too long. Maybe if there were fewer candidates, that might have been different. More focus would have been possible. But with so many voices over three hours, it was just too much. By my read, it held together with some coherence for the first hour or maybe hour and a half. After that it just lost focus and seemed to be a disorganized run of questions. I don’t think that was Jake Tapper’s fault. It was just too long; too many people.
The moment Jeb’s dreams of the presidency definitively ended …
Here you go Twitter pic.twitter.com/9wfzAQGftg
— Brandon Wall (@Walldo) September 17, 2015
10:01 PM: Whatever else you can say, Rand Paul has kicked Trump’s ass.
10:02 PM: Jeb: Dude, my dynasty has been running the GOP for three decades. Where else can I find advisers?
10:12 PM: Lord, two hours in, this debate is a mess.
10:14 PM: “Arab boots”
10:22 PM: No one sings the song of conservative victimization quite as well as Ted Cruz.
10:36 PM: This reminds me of the heavyweight fights my dad and I used to watch on TV like forty years ago when you’re in the 14th round and Ali and the other guy are just sort of hanging on to each other because they’re so tired and the ref keeps having to break them up and demand they fight.
10:48 PM: This Trump vaccine thing is weird.
10:57 PM: Jake Tapper definitely punch drunk at this point.
11:03 PM: I hate to break it to these guys. But every President doesn’t get to have their own Air Force One. And that wasn’t even Reagan’s. Like four or five presidents used it.
A year or so ago, I said that Walker was the sleeper candidate. There’s a lot in his resume that should make him a strong candidate. But he’s stumbled again and again on the national stage. And I think the big thing is this: he does not come off as a likable guy. He’s aggressive. If you’re in line with his ideology then his aggressiveness is appealing. He’s a fighter. He seems, and I think is, ruthless. And he’s successful. You cannot take away from him that he ran on – and pushed through – an extremely conservative agenda in a bluish state. Big deal. But only a small portion of the electorate is that ideological. If you’re not, I think he comes off very differently. As aggressive and kind of a jerk.
They used to say that even for people who didn’t agree with President Bush, he was the kind of guy you could see yourself having a beer with. I don’t think people without a strong ideological grounding on the right will see Walker that way. He’s not the guy you have a beer with. He’s the guy who would stick out his leg and trip you when you’re on your way to have a beer with someone else. Maybe President Bush, maybe not. But he’s not likable. And those people don’t get elected President.
I was just talking to a colleague about Trump tonight. Is he as dominating as he was in last month’s debate? Or is he more cautious? Less pointed? I’m not sure. This debate does have a different feel to me. I’m seeing more of Cruz, more of Bush (though not in a good way for him), Fiorina is holding the ground a lot. I think it’s right that he’s not dominating in the same way. In part, Fox News made him dominant by going after him so hard.
But here’s the thing. Trump is the only one who says we need to build a big physical wall. He’s the only one who says he will deport 12 million people. He says Americans should speak English. Full stop.
None of the rest say these aren’t good ideas. They’re just too hard or not realistic. Trump’s points are clear. They are in line with base Republican thinking. So I still think he’s winning.
The other point – and on this I agree with my colleague – is whether or not Trump is doing well or not, Jeb Bush is not doing well. He seems weak and unfocused. He asked Donald Trump to apologize to his wife. Trump said no. Jeb is weak. I don’t see him ever breaking out of this cycle of weakness and defeat. So if it’s not Trump and I still can’t really imagine it can be, who?
Late Update: Also notable, something seems slightly off about Trump’s forward hair zone? Like a little limp or kind of resting down to a point? Thoughts?
9:14 PM: No one on the stage is willing to say that trying to deport 12 million people is crazy. Just not realistic, can I answer a different question? Win for Trump.
A few quick takeaways.
None of the contenders were willing to really go for the jugular and say that Donald Trump lacked the temperament to be commander-in-chief. That was significant.
Second, Trump seemed to get substantially better in this debate over last one. Again, big deal.
For whatever reason, Trump seemed to fade to the background in the last half hour while the others went nuts about killing people abroad. Curious why.