I guess it’s time for me to start weighing in on post-election questions. First, my day-after prediction that the results actually hurt President’s Bush’s reelection chances. Second, who’s up and who’s down for the 2004 nomination.
First, President Bush’s odds. As you can see from this article I have today in The Boston Globe I’m not someone who softpedals how big a debacle last Tuesday was. And I’m not saying this is some sort of disaster for Bush’s prospects. What I am saying is this: If the Republicans see this as a mandate for their domestic policy agenda they’re fools. Yet I think they will see it that way. Indeed, they’re telling reporters they see it that way. There is going to be heavy pressure — and pressure not bucked by the White House — to push through a lot of very conservative and not-particularly-popular legislation. And that will hurt him.
Basically, we’re still in the same ideological world we were a few weeks ago. A mix of a wartime mood, a personally popular president, and a poor Democratic campaign allowed the Republicans to pick up seats. But an unfettered political and policy-making hand for this White House will do a lot of things that cut against where the country is politically. And that will create problems for the president in 2004.
As for the nomination sweepstakes. My basic take is that most people on Capitol Hill are damaged by this: Gephardt and Daschle certainly, but Lieberman too — though he may not know it. The people who aren’t from Washington — and thus aren’t damaged — don’t strike me as really serious candidates. Gore, in a sense, is helped since none of this 2002 pile-up is on his dime. But he seems very far out in the wilderness at the moment. So I’m not sure quite where any of this leaves the Democrats. Much more on this in the coming days.
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