Do the Shi’a stay on the sidelines?
There are all sorts of potential ‘vectors’ of violence in Iraq, not at all of which are directed at us, but all of which, by definition, complicate what we are trying to accomplish in the country.
We know much less than we need to about the character of the guerilla violence being directed at US troops. But by and large it seems to come from elements within the Sunni Arab population of the country.
At the same time, those same groups appear to be behind the continuing attacks against Shi’a political leaders.
For instance, a couple days ago suspected Saddam loyalists assassinated a leading member of the al-Hakim family, Muhannad al-Hakim. That family is the moving force behind the most important Shi’a political organization, SCIRI, and just as importantly SCIRI’s militia, the Badr Corps.
These attacks, of course, must be seen in the context of the earlier assassination of the former head of SCIRI, Ayatollah Mohamed Bakr al-Hakim.
Will they fight back?
To date, this is the shoe that hasn’t dropped in Iraq — a move to open fighting from the well-armed and highly organized Shi’a militias who’ve decided to stay largely on the sidelines.
To a great degree that makes sense. We’re fighting the Sunnis in the center of the country — their sectarian enemies. So the Shi’a can sit back and have us and the ex-Baathists bloody each other.
Their numerical preponderance in the country isn’t going anywhere. So they can afford to wait for the reversion to Iraqi sovereignty which will certainly mean power for them. By a cruel arithmetic, we’re doing their dirty work for them.
(Ed. note: references to ‘Sunni’ and ‘Shi’a’ and ‘ex-Baathists’, in this context, should be taken as very general references to allegiance groups and shouldn’t be taken to mean that all the members of these groups are implicated in these activities.)
But Sunni paramilitaries — call them whatever you want — are hitting Shi’a groups like SCIRI very hard. If the Shi’a start hitting back, the situation on the ground in Iraq could begin to change very quickly. And that must certainly be the strategy of those mounting these attacks.
