Are we about to capture Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaida’s #2?
Clearly, something is afoot. Reports from the fighting near the Pakistani border say there is heavy resistance which suggests the fighters are protecting a ‘high-value’ target. What’s more there are apparently intelligence reports — from interviews with captured fighters — to the effect that al-Zawahiri either has been or remains in just this area.
On the other hand, I don’t think you can avoid noting that Secretary of State Colin Powell has been in the neighborhood, most recently in India. And today, the day we hear this announcement, happens to be the very day when Powell came calling in Islamabad with the news that we’re designating Pakistan a major non-NATO US ally, which carries not only prestige but significantly facilitates the purchase of US arms.
One needn’t assume that the Pakistanis aren’t being honest with what they’re saying. But I don’t think you need to be too imaginative to believe that with Powell in town with a prize in hand there’d be a great desire to put the best face on what may be very ambiguous evidence.
What’s more, experts on the running fights through the mountains of Afghanistan in recent years note that these fighters tend to put up fierce fights whether they’re protecting a bigwig or not.
All of it adds up to my not really knowing what to make of it. I’ve talked to several al Qaida experts this afternoon and they don’t really seem to know what to make of it either. The best description I could give is to say they each seem like they’re in wait-and-see mode, as I guess we all should be.
We’ll know soon enough.
