There was an interesting tidbit towards the end of the David Espo piece from last night that caught my eye.
According to several officials, Sen. George Voinovich, R-Ohio, and McCain engaged in a brief, impromptu debate touching on that point recently at a private meeting of the rank and file.
Voinovich said the Sunni and Shiites in Iraq would together drive al-Qaida from their country if the U.S. were not there. McCain took the opposite view.
Maybe some enterprising political reporter can follow up with McCain to find out why, exactly, he believes this, because all available evidence suggests Voinovich is absolutely right. al Qaeda isn’t going to seize control of Iraq if the U.S. withdraws; al Qaeda is going to be driven from Iraq if the U.S. withdraws.
Kevin Drum recently explained the dynamic.
If we leave Iraq, the country is unlikely in the extreme to become an al-Qaeda haven. Partly this is because it’s rage at the American presence itself that provides a big part of the fuel for AQI’s growth. Our withdrawal would eliminate that source of rage and devastate AQI’s ability to continue its recruiting. Partly it’s because, as we’re seeing in Anbar province right now, even Sunni extremists don’t like AQI. Left to their own devices they’ll kill off AQI jihadists in order to protect their own tribal turf. And partly it’s because once we withdraw, non-Kurdish Iraq will be free to finish its inevitable transition into a Shiite theocracy — a transition that’s sadly unavoidable whether we stay or not. Yes, this transition will be bloody, but in the end Iraq will almost certainly be composed of the Kurdish north, which has no use for al-Qaeda; the remaining Sunni sheikhs, who also have no use for al-Qaeda; and the victorious Shiite central government itself, which likewise has no use for murderous Sunni jihadists on its soil. Between the three of them, AQI isn’t likely to last a year.
Indeed, as the administration’s own policy makes clear, Sunnis in Iraq are anxious to take up arms against al Qaeda. We could withdraw and let them.
The AP article doesn’t include any specific quotes, other than to say McCain believes the “opposite.” It’d be interesting to hear him justify the belief publicly.
