Brookings’ Michael O’Hanlon, relying on data from the Pentagon, says the death toll is down in Iraq. McClatchy Newspapers, relying on data it compiled on its own, came to the opposite conclusion. Who’s right? The AP pulled together some numbers of its own.
This year’s U.S. troop buildup has succeeded in bringing violence in Baghdad down from peak levels, but the death toll from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double the pace from a year ago. […]
The AP tracking includes Iraqi civilians, government officials, police and security forces killed in attacks such as gunfights and bombings, which are frequently blamed on Sunni suicide strikes. It also includes execution-style killings — largely the work of Shiite death squads.
Kevin Drum summarized nicely the principal conclusions of the AP investigation:
* The overall death toll is down from its peak, but is still about double the rate from last summer.
* A military spokesman differed, saying fatalities are at their lowest level since June 2006, but “offered no statistics to back his claim.”
* As nearly everyone predicted, many of the insurgents have simply moved out of Baghdad into other areas: “Initial calculations validate fears that the Baghdad crackdown would push militants into districts north of the capital…. In July, the AP figures show 35 percent of all war-related killings occurred in northern provinces. The figure one year ago was 22 percent.”
* Residents are fleeing: “The number of displaced Iraqis has more than doubled since the start of the year, from 447,337 on Jan. 1 to 1.14 million on July 31.”
Just a little context to accompany reports about “progress” in Iraq.
