VA-GOV Race All About Likely Voters — And GOTV

The latest polls from the Virginia gubernatorial race all show Republican candidate Bob McDonnell leading Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds — but by different margins, and with wildly different makeups of the electorate under their different likely voter screens.

What this tells us is that get-out-the-vote efforts could be crucial in this race, as the parties work to get out their base supporters. Barack Obama carried the state by 53%-47%, but the polls show likely voter pools that either voted for John McCain or only narrowly for Obama — a sign that the likely voter models are showing Republican voters to be relatively more motivated than Democrats this time.

Check out the different results, after the jump.• SurveyUSA: McDonnell 55%, Deeds 41%, with a ±4% margin of error. The likely electorate is Republicans 32%, Democrats 32%, Independents 29%, and the respondents voted for John McCain in 2008 by 51%-44%.

• Rasmussen: McDonnell 51%, Deeds 42%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. The makeup of the likely electorate here is Democrats 43%, Republicans 38%, Independents 19%. Respondents were not asked about their 2008 presidential vote.

• Public Policy Polling (D): McDonnell 48%, Deeds 43%. The likely electorate is Democrats 37%, Republicans 29%, Independents 34%, and respondents voted for Barack Obama by 48%-45%.

Note that the presidential vote question never adds up to 100%, as some respondents won’t disclose how they voted. And also remember this important number: In the actual 2008 election, Obama carried the state by 53%-47% — but McCain voters appear to be disproportionately more likely to turn out right now.