Poll: NY-23 Dem and Conservative In Tight Race, Republican In Third

October 29, 2009 7:43 a.m.

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the NY-23 race finds this to be a dead heat between Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman — and moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava in third.

The numbers: Owens 33%, Hoffman 32%, Scozzafava 21%, with a ±4% margin of error. Last week, Owens had 35%, Scozzafava 30%, and Hoffman 23%.

Two other polls commissioned by groups backing Hoffman — the Club For Growth and the Minuteman PAC — have shown Hoffman with a lead over Owens, and Scozzafava in third.

Special elections are notoriously difficult to poll, due to low and unpredictable turnout patterns, and the nature of a three-way race makes it all the more complicated. At this point, though, we have enough evidence to say with a reasonable level of confidence that the race is probably between Owens and Hoffman.

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