The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the NY-23 race finds this to be a dead heat between Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman — and moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava in third.
The numbers: Owens 33%, Hoffman 32%, Scozzafava 21%, with a Â±4% margin of error. Last week, Owens had 35%, Scozzafava 30%, and Hoffman 23%.
Special elections are notoriously difficult to poll, due to low and unpredictable turnout patterns, and the nature of a three-way race makes it all the more complicated. At this point, though, we have enough evidence to say with a reasonable level of confidence that the race is probably between Owens and Hoffman.