Poll: Hoffman Narrowly Ahead Of Owens, 41%-36%

The new Siena poll of the NY-23 race gives Conservative Doug Hoffman a lead over Democrat Bill Owens — but only a narrow one.

The numbers: Hoffman 41%, Owens 36%, and Republican Dede Scozzafava — who dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat Owens, but is still on the ballot — at 6%, with a whopping 18% undecided. In the previous poll from two days ago, before the whole fiasco mentioned previously, Owens had 36%, Hoffman 35%, Scozzafava 20%, and only 9% were undecided.

This is in contrast to last night’s Public Policy Polling (D) survey, which gave Hoffman a double-digit lead. When two reputable pollsters differ, the tie should probably go to the local one, Siena, in terms of which to put greater faith in — but in any case we’ll find out the truth tomorrow night, when people actually vote.

From the pollster’s analysis: “With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race. The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them. Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night.”