Poll: Corzine Down In New Jersey Gubernatorial Race — But It’s Not Over

A new Rasmussen poll in New Jersey finds Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) in trouble for his re-election bid this November against either of the potential GOP nominees — but on the other hand, a Republican victory is not any sure thing.

The numbers: Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie leads Corzine by 47%-38%. Former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, the conservative insurgent candidate against Christie in the June 2 Republican primary, now edges Corzine by 42%-41%. The margin of error is ±4.5%. As the pollster’s analysis notes, however, this is an improvement for Corzine — in March, he trailed Christie by 15 points, and Lonegan by eight.

Rasmussen, who like myself is a New Jerseyan, is also very cognizant of a pattern in state politics: “New Jersey polls often shows Republican candidates polling well in the spring and then shows Democrat gaining ground in the fall.” Essentially, there tend to be a lot of reluctant Democratic voters who hold off as undecideds for a while, and then give in on Election Day.

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