Miller Up In AK-Sen With Write-In Murkowski Chasing His Heels

September 21, 2010 5:09 am

Joe Miller (R) is still in the lead in the Alaska Senate race that was turned on its head after Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) announced she was mounting a write-in bid, according to a new survey of the state’s voters by Rasmussen Reports.

The poll shows Miller with 42%, Murkowski 27% and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams with 25%. The methodology used illustrates the challenge of Murkowski’s bid, with the pollster only asking about Miller and McAdams since only their names appear on the ballot.The survey of 500 likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error.

Last month Miller led McAdams, mayor of Sitka, Alaska, by just six points in a Rasmussen poll, prompting the pollster to move the race from “Solid Republican” to “Leans Republican.” Today the pollster moved it back into “Solid GOP” territory.

Rasmussen writes:

Polling for write-in campaigns is always challenging, so results should be interpreted with caution. For this survey, Rasmussen Reports asked respondents about a choice between Miller and McAdams without mentioning Murkowski. That is the choice voters will see when they enter the voting booth. However, when response options were offered to survey respondents, Murkowski’s name was mentioned.

Miller picks up a solid majority of Republican voters, while McAdams wins most Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, the three candidates are essentially even.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Miller’s voters say they’re sure they will vote for him and won’t change their minds before Election Day. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Murkowski’s voters say the same, as do 66% of McAdams voters.

There is no TPM Poll Average of this race because of its changing dynamics, but you can see Alaska polls here.

Our coverage of the race is here.

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